Lat: 45 42.75′ S
Long: 135 57.05′ W
Inst Speed: 15.3
Wind Dir: 14
Wind Speed: 18.2
Distance last 24hr: 440.0
Distance to finish: 11504.18
Email from the boat to shore:
From: OmanTri
To: update
Subject: Monday4am GMT
Date: 09/02/2009 04:22:31
It’s getting dark here now, but in the last 5 hours the skies have cleared a
bit, and the wind has headed us a bit – as was forecasted… we are just
waiting to see evidence of the Low passing ahead of us – we have been
looking at every satellite picture that we recieve hoping to see some sign
of a circulation of cloud , but we have seen nothing yet. In the mean time
we continue eastwards right now at 70 degrees to the winds, with 1 reef and
staysail jib, we had the solent jib up for quite a while but it’s limit and
an important part of our sail inventory so best not risk any damage – and we
don’t need to be at 110% speed now – just sitting back a little bit and
allow this bad weather to pass ahead of us. The winds should drop for us in
the next 24hours, and likely rotate right around us through the west, south
west , south, and back to North East via east! once we are back on the NE
winds we’ll crank it up a bit in a bid to make some good time towards cape
horn – seems like a good window for us to round in nice weather ( as nice
as it can be ) if we get our timing right – this is still a week away, so
the forecast is far from sure – especially in an area renound for it’s
changable conditions.
Talk onboard at the moment is of the 1/2 way point which we’ll see sometime
in the next 36 hours we hope….. Hooch is eyeing up his white choc buttons
( aren’t we all! ), if we cross over during darkness ( as has been the trend
on this trip – passing milestones at night) then i can see it being a fairly
quiet afair, with some ‘occassion’ taking place the following day. One
part of all of us says it’s ONLY half way, and there are so many miles to
go still that it’s easy to play it down. However it is still 1/2 way and
means we have sailed over 10,000nm to be where we are, and we’ll all be
happy to still be going – such is the technical nature of these projects
that the smallest thing can cause and early end to the trip… This has been
proved time and again on the Jules Verne race course, with big multihulls
having damage to masts or rudders or daggerboards that have put them either
out of contention for the record, or out of completing a circumnavigation.
There is an element of chance that ‘making your own luck through good
preparation’ just can’t cover. – so please keep fingers crossed as much for
the second half as you have for the first!!!
Our other main topic onboard is of the Louis Vuitton Pacific Cup, we have
got some snippits of information from what’s going on and by all accounts
it’s going very well for Team Origin – we’ll done guys….hope this bodes
well for the future – when ever the next cup will take place!
Also thanks a lot to people who have send messages by the website – it’s
great to read that people are following what we are doing out here, and it’s
also great to hear from a few old friends who we’ve not been in touch with
for a while.For those of you who keep reading our updates, and think i’ll
send them a message later….. don’t do it later do it now !!!!! there’s
no time like the present!
Fashions come and go again today with a mix of Reds and Yellows once more –
having been in both today for two stints on deck i can recommed the Yellow
for resilience to wave impact, and red for convenince and speed of getting
gear on. When you get on deck in a hurry to help with a sail change any
protection at all from the elements is welcome.
Last Position: near 45 49s/134 22w at 1200utc Mon Feb 9, 2009
Prepared: 1300utc Mon Feb 9, 2009
SummaryÖWill be quite rough from around 0600utc Tues thru at least 00utc
Thurs
Thanks for the latest ice gate!
Nice job of staying behind the low.
1) Low pressure area close to 44 30s/131w
a) the low is moving ESE
2) As the low does push to the ESE, expect the wind to continue clocking
(from the ESE to the SE and then SW over the next several hours
a) the low will be strengthening
3) Winds will be increasing as the flow does clock later today
a) wind speeds 20-25 kts by 00utc and 25-35 kts by 12utc Tuesday
b) wind will become SW and then W and likely WNW
c) strongest wind around 18utc Tues thru near 06utc Wed ñ potential gusts
to 45-50 kts
d) a little less wind to the N Tues-Wed
4) The low will be near 54-55s/118w by 12utc Tuesday and will be strong
5) Therefore, expect strong WNW flow to continue thru Wed
a) in addition, building sea-state later today and will have up to 15-20
ft late by Wed
6) Now, there will be a little less wind to the N, stronger to the S over
the next couple of days
a) figure you head more SE when the wind becomes SW and then a more E
course when the WNW and NW flow develops
7) Wind then will edge left a little and become more W
8) W flow for the most part is expected into part of Thurs
9) Wind then likely to clock after 12-18utc Thurs as new low comes east down
around 52s
10) Flow comes down for a time 18utc Thurs-00utc Fri then increases from the
NW Fri
11) Will have a cold front coming towards you Sat
RoutingÖ a more E heading with the clocking wind then head SE when wind
comes around to the SW and then an ENE course with the WNW and NW wind ñ on
starboard around 06utc Wed with the backing wind ñ You will probably have
to gybe occasionally to keep you from getting too far south on Wed/Thurs.
Some estimated positions below
Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts, and time is UTC
Mon, Feb 9 – getting close to low to E ñ winds become more uncertain but
likely lighter
18: 190-220/12-17 – clocking winds
WeatherÖConsiderable clouds with a few squally showers
Seas 6-10 ft, with a NW swell
Tue, Feb 10 – increasing wind as low departs
00: 270-290/18-24
06: 300-320/20-30
12: 300-320/25-35 nr 46 30s/124w
18: 300-320/30-40, g45
WeatherÖMostly cloudy with some widely scattered squally showers
Seas building to 13-18 ft W swell
Wed Feb 11
00: 290-310/30-45, g45-50
06: 270-290/25-35 on starboard
12: 270-290/25-35 nr 47s/114w
maybe a couple hours on port to avoid getting too far south and also winds a
bit less to the N
18: 270-290/25-35
WeatherÖCloudy with a shower or 2
Seas 15-20 ft ñ a W swell
Thu, Feb 12
00: 270-290/25-35
06: 270-290/22-32
12: 280-300/20-25 nr 49 10s/105w on port between 12-18utc
18: 300-320/17-23 on port
WeatherÖVariable cloudiness
Seas diminish to 13-18 ft with a W swell
Fri, Feb 13
00: 310-330/18-24
06: 300-320/20-30
12: 300-320/25-35 nr 49s/ 99 30w
18: 290-310/25-35
WeatherÖPartly cloudy to cloudy
Seas 12-15 ft early, then 15-19 ft ñ W swell
Sat, Feb 14
00: 280-300/25-35
12: 240-260/18-25 nr 51s/87w
WeatherÖCloudy with showers/squalls
Seas W around 16-22 ft
Best regards, George Caras
—
PLEASE NOTE: AS OF JANUARY 1, 2008, OUR NEW EMAIL ADDRESS IS :
info@commandersweather.com
Commanders Weather Corp.
Tel: 603-882-6789