From: Commanders’ Weather
To: Musandam
Subject: weather forecast 2-4
Date: 03/02/2009 13:15:45
To: Charles Darbyshire and the crew of
“Musandam”
From: Commanders Weather Corp
Event: sail around the world
Last Position: Cook Straits Wed AM local time Feb 4th 2009
Prepared: 1300utc Tue Feb 3, 2009
SummaryÖCharles, see no sense to get north along the coast, as you will need
to get south as much as you can. So you may want to leave Cape Pallister
ASAP to take advantage of any W-NW wind to get south. Overall, it looks to
be a tough/slow situation over the next couple days as high pressure shifts
E and provides lighter winds. In the short term (today), will need to get
south, but then E (tonight/Thu) so that you can stay in breeze, and then
long term (weekend), will need to be down near 45S for best conditions
1) For early this Wed AM, there is a weak cold front just to the S and SW
into northern S Island, which is shifting to the E and NE
2) Right now, there is a N-NW gradient ahead of this front into the Straits
a) Wellington reporting winds 350 at about 21 kts, which
b) wind is likely into the 20s to possible 30 kts in the straits
3) As cold front shifts to the E and NE, wind diminishes and eventually
shifts into the SW during this afternoon.
a) likely frontal passage with wind shift by noontime
4) Will be a lighter SW wind behind this front into this evening, but high
pressure shifts E to S Island,
5) there will be an increasing S to S-SE breeze ahead or E of this high into
Thu.
a) will have to head E with the S-SE to S breeze, which comes up to near
20 kts
6) This high shifts E along 42-43S over the next couple days to just N of
Chathan Island by 00 utc Fri
7) The quicker you get E, the more likely you stay with a stronger S-SE to S
wind thru Thu
a) wind speeds may hold near 10 kts,
b) but wind diminishes and becomes lighter and more variable as this high
catches up with you later Thu into Fri
c) best to head E thru Thu, then some S on Fri, to get into the developing
NW wind
8) The next cold front heads E, which will allow for a NW wind to develop by
12 utc Fri
9) And ahead of this approaching front, there will be a very favorable NW
wind for much of Sat into much of Sun as well
a) best to head E close to 45S with this breeze
10) cold front does weaken as it moves more E, which will allow for lighter
conditions late Sun into Mon.
RoutingÖ
1) With the W-NW wind, best to get south as much as you can, but
2) Once into the SW wind, you will have to head E and do the best you can to
get E with the S to S-SE wind during Thu.
a) the quicker you get E, the better chance you will stay with some wind,
as
b) lighter winds will be approaching from behind, as the next high moves E
3) There maybe a period of light conditions on Fri, but will get into a NW
wind at night
a) would take this NW wind more S for a time to get into best breeze for
the weekend,
4) Once down to 45S, then can head E with the NW wind
5) Estimated positions below.
Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts, and time is UTC
Tues, Feb 3 ñ near Cape Pallister
18: 290-310/ 12-17, more wind to the S into the straits, while less to the N
along coast
WeatherÖpartly cloudy to fair
Seas 2-4 ft
Wed, Feb 4
00: bcmg 200-230/7-12
06: 190-220/ 5-10
12: bcmg 150-170/15-22 nr 42 30s/ 178 30e
18: 150-170/ 16-23
WeatherÖpartly to possible variable cloudy
Seas 6-9 ft, SW swell
Thu, Feb 5 ñ wind lighter to the S and W closer to high pressure
00: 160-190/ 12-17
06: 160-180/ 10-15
12: 160-190/ 8-14 nr 42 30s/ 176w
18: 170-200/ 6-11
WeatherÖVariable cloudiness
Seas building to near 10 ft, S-SW swell ñ higher to the S and SE
Fri, Feb 6 ñ try getting S so that you can get into the better NW wind
developing at night
00: 190-230/ 5-10
06: 210-240/ <7 ñ wind may be light and variable
12: bcmg 300-330/ 8-13 nr 43 30s/172 30w
18: 290-320/ 12-20
WeatherÖpartly cloudy
Seas near 10 ft, then subsiding to 6-8 ft ñ mainly SW swell
Sat, Feb 7 ñ great NW wind ahead of cold front
00: 300-320/ 17-25 ñ heading E ñ near 45s/162w
12: 300-320/ 25-35 nr 45s/162w
WeatherÖVariable to mostly cloudy, risk for isolated showers/squalls, more
activity behind you closer to front, while less ahead to the E
Seas near 10 ft, rough chop with SW swell
Sun, Feb 8 ñ wind diminishes ahead of weakening cold front
00: 300-320/20-30
12: 320-340/10-15 near 44 30n/154w
WeatherÖvariable cloudy to cloudy, some showers/squalls possible
Seas 10-14 ft, less chop, but larger SW swell
Best regards, Chris Wasserback
—
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