From: Commanders’ Weather
To: Musandam
Subject: weather forecast 2-5
Date: 05/02/2009 14:09:15
To: Charles Darbyshire and the crew of
“Musandam”
From: Commanders Weather Corp
Event: sail around the world
Last Position: near 46s/170 43w at 12 30 utc Thu Feb 5, 2009
Prepared: 1400utc Thu Feb 5, 2009
SummaryÖCharles, we can see why models take you further south to 51s/150w,
but don’t see any sense to get that south to get a couple kts more wind
speed. Think you can get a little more S than our routing shows, but don’t
see getting down to 50-51S as a significant advantage. If you stay within
45-47S, you will have favorable wind thru Sun. On Mon, as you get E of the
Ice Gate, wind diminishes some from NW to W, and then can get down to 47-48S
for a time. But with stronger W to NW winds into Tue, you may need to get a
little north again.
1) For right now, the high is just NW of Chatham Island, while low pressure
resides to the SE near 55-57S/156-160E
2) In between systems, you are in a very favorable S-SW to SW flow
a) look for wind staying mainly in the 20s to low 30s for the next 12-18
hrs, and
b) will trend right into SW to W-SW and W, which you will have to get
south
3) The high passes by to the north of you along or near 40S during Fri into
Sat, which this will allow the breeze to shift into the W
4) The next front tracks to the E, and ahead of this front, you will get
into a stronger and more squally W-NW to NW wind.
a) with this breeze, you can gybe and trend more north, but
b) it looks best to stay south of 45S
5) Think you remain with a NW wind ahead of this front into Sun
a) wind could go a far right as 350 to possible 360 at times
6) as this front approaches from the W, wind diminishes and eventually
shifts into W-NW to W, most likely around Mon.
7) With the lighter W-NW wind, which may get down to <20 kts, you will have
to get more south.
a) some uncertainty in forecast and will depend on the front, if coming
thru or not, but
b) would expect a lighter period around Mon
8) Models still see a large storm system developing well south into southern
Ocean (S of 55S) during Tue into Wed of next week.
9) look for an increasing W to NW flow, which maybe quite rough with large
seas
a) looks best to be near 45-47S during this time, but
b) we’ll know more as we get closer
RoutingÖ
1) As the breeze trends more right, think you will have to get more S, to
near 47S/162w by 12 utc Fri,
a) its OK to get a little more S of this position if need to,
2) and as wind shifts into W to NW, then can gybe and head more W-NW to NW
3) with the NW wind ahead of cold, it looks best to be heading E near 45-46S
to near 140w
4) once into the lighter W wind, and east of the Ice Gate, you can come S
for a time, but with stronger W to NW wind by Tue, you can then track to the
E
5) Estimated positions listed below
Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts, and time is UTC
Thu, Feb 5 ñ
18: 200-230/ 22-30
WeatherÖVariable to mostly cloudy, risk for isolated passing squally shower
Seas building to 15 ft, wind wave chop with SW swell ñ higher to the S and
SE
Fri, Feb 6 ñ can get a little more S
00: 220-240/ 20-30
06: 230-250/ 20-28
12: 240-270/ 24-32 nr 47s/162w
18: 260-280/ 25-35, gybing
WeatherÖvariable cloudy with a squally shower possible
Seas near 15 ft, wind wave chop with SW swell
Sat, Feb 7 ñ increasing W-NW to NW wind ahead of cold front
00: 280-300/ 24-32
06: 290-310/ 20-30
12: 310-340/ 25-40 nr 45 30s/153w
18: 310-340/ 25-40
WeatherÖVariable to mostly cloudy with increasing chance for
showers/squalls, which some may contain heavy rain w/gusts to 45 kts
Seas 10-15 ft, rough chop with SW swell
Sun, Feb 8 ñ NW wind ahead of cold front, but diminishing late as front
nears
00: 300-330/25-40
06: 320-340/25-40
12: 320-350/25-35 nr 45 30n/144 30w
18: 330-290/35-20, front just to the W
WeatherÖcontinued lots of clouds with showers and squally conditions
Seas 10-15 ft, SW swell
Mon, Feb 9 – front shifts thru? And coming more S when E of the Ice gate
00: 280-310/16-24
12: 260-290/15-22 nr 47 30s/137w
WeatherÖVariable cloudiness, showers possible
Seas 10-15 ft, SW swell
Tue, Feb 10 ñ still big low forming S of 55w, which would give a rougher W
to NW flow ñ best wind conditions would be near 45-47S, and see no sense to
be further south
00: 300-330/25-40
12: 270-290/30-45 nr 46 30s/127w
WeatherÖincreasing chance for showers and squalls
Seas building to 15-20 ft
Outlook for Wed Feb 11
W to W-NW flow near 30-40 kts. possible big seas!!
Best regards, Chris Wasserback
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