From: Commanders’ Weather
To: Musandam
Subject: weather
Date: 10/02/2009 12:32:45
To: Charles Darbyshire and the crew of
“Musandam”
From: Commanders Weather Corp
Event: sail around the world
Last Position: 46 14s/126 58w at 1200utc Tues Feb 10, 2009
Prepared: 1230utc Tues Feb 10, 2009
SummaryÖRough with lots of wind and big seas now thru around 06utc Thurs
then another round of strong winds later Fri thru early Sat ñ could get
quite light Sun, but confidence low on that
Very big seas as well.
Be careful!
1) Low pressure has moved close to 55s/117w
2) Strong W flow generally north of 50s and not much we can do to avoid the
strong winds
a) wind speeds mainly 30-40 kts with a few gusts to 45-50 kts
b) wind may be 260-270 next several hours, then a little more right after
16-18utc
3) Flow will continue quite strong thru Wed, around 25-35 kts with a few
higher gusts (40+ kts)
4) Low pressure areas will continue to head eastward to the south of 55s
over the next few days
5) New low will be near 55s/135w around 12utc Thursday
a) cold front from the low will extend to another, weaker low near
46s/122w with the front then extending NW to 40s/130w
b) the front will be coming east
6) This will cause the wind to clock after 06utc Thursday
a) wind speeds also come down for about a 6 hour period
7) Flow will then increase quickly as front and low pressure along it head E
and ESE
a) low will be near 48-49s/113w at 00utc Fri and 510-52s/103w around 12utc
Fri
8) Strong NW winds of 30-40 kts and gusts to possibly 50 kts ahead of the
front
a) may be squally
9) Front passes around 18utc Fri with flow becoming more W and WSW
a) wind speeds may ease a little Sat, but still likely only coming down to
20-30 kts
10) Right now, looks like a WSW or SW wind persists Sun, too, with the wind
starting to clock Sun night/Mon
11) 00utc run of the GFS showed a big drop in the wind later in the weekend
as it tried to develop/bring east, a weak ridge of high pressure
a) for now, discounting that and leaning on strong low off to the SW of
Cape Horn later in the weekend and keeping stronger flow for you
RoutingÖ towards 47s/115w then to around 48s/105w
Some estimated positions below
Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts, and time is UTC
Tue, Feb 10
18: 270-290/28-38, g45-50
WeatherÖConsiderable clouds with some widely scattered squally showers
Seas building to 15-22 ft W swell
Wed Feb 11
00: 275-295/25-35, g40
06: 275-295/25-35, g40
12: 275-295/25-35, g40 nr 46 55s/116w
18: 270-290/25-35, g40
WeatherÖCloudy with a few scattered showers or a squall
Seas 15-22 ft ñ a W swell
Thu, Feb 12
00: 270-290/25-35
06: 275-295/22-32
12: 280-300/20-25 nr 48s/106 10w
18: 320-340/15-20
WeatherÖPartly cloudy to cloudy
Seas 15-20 ft with a W swell ñ seas come down some late
Fri, Feb 13 ñ wind stronger S, a little less N
00: 310-330/20-25
06: 300-320/25-35
12: 290-310/30-40, g45 nr 48 10s/96 50w
18: 290-310/30-40, g50
WeatherÖCloudy with showers/few squalls developing
Seas 12-15 ft early, then building to 15-22 ft ñ W swell
Sat, Feb 14
00: 260-280/30-40, g50
06: 250-270/25-35
12: 250-270/25-35 nr 50 30s/87w
18: 260-280/20-30
WeatherÖCloudy with showers/squalls
Seas of18-25 ft and mainly from the W ñ diminishing seas overnight
Sun, Feb 15
00: 250-270/20-28
12: 240-260/18-24 nr 54s/81w
WeatherÖCloudy with a couple showers.
Seas come down to 10-15 ft
Best regards, George Caras
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