om: Commanders’ Weather <info@
To: , Musandam <omantri@
Subject: New Routing Tue 12 utc 1-13
Date: 13/01/2009 12:32:10
Charles,
Accuracy of grib files in the Doldrums are usually poor to
say the least. Very difficult to rely on wind directions.
Usually you have to take what wind you have a try to get S as best you can
to get thru them the quickest. Heading SE is not normally
good strategy as a general rule.
But looking at the latest gribs(6UTC) from GFS there is increasing ESE-E
wind late this week to 10+ kts E of a line from: 6s/75e to 10s/ 73 30e to
13s/73e to 15s/68e. This wind is the northern portion of the circulation
around the big high to the S down near 30-35s and is the trade wind regime.
This is what we should aim for and in this case it is closer to head SE to
get East of this line rather then S.
Your routing supports this. But keep in mind that model guidance in the
Doldrums is erratic and subject to change. You will likely
get into < 5 kts of wind for a time and there may be S winds forcing your E
for a time on Thursday. We have you getting into this wind
18 utc Thu near 7-8s and 73-74w.
Will follow with detailed forecast within the hour.
Tom Mattus
From: Commanders’ Weather <info@
To: Musandam <omantri@
Subject: weather Tue 1-13
Date: 13/01/2009 13:29:54
To: Charles Darbyshire and crew of “Musandam”
From: Commanders Weather Corp
Event: sail around the world
Last Position: 3 14s/ 66 47e at 1200utc Tue, Jan 13, 2009
Prepared: 1330utc Tue, Jan 13, 2009
SummaryÖHave adjusted routing to SE next 48 hours as you may be able to get
to E trades earlier. This agrees with your routing.
1) Should see a significant decline in wind speed next 12 hours as you get
further S and into the
Doldrums.
2) Model guidance in the Doldrums is often erratic and can be unreliable as
systems are more
mesoscale in nature( 50-100 miles wide or less).
3) The larger scale models have a difficult time resolving this smaller
scale so anticipate some changes
in model guidance over the next 48 hrs in the light air of the
Doldrums.
4) As discussed in an earlier email it may be better to head SE as best you
can to get to the ESE-E
trade wind regime earlier.
a) Your routing supports this as well.
5) 6 utc model guidance is showing increasing ESE-E trade winds around the
big high to the south near
30-35s east of the following line on Thu /Fri.
a) 6s/75e to
b) 10s/ 73 30e to
c) 13s/ 73e to
d) 15s/ 68e
6) So it looks like trying to head SE will be about 200 miles closer than
continuing S to get to this wind.
7) If you do that then expect your NE wind will diminish to < 5 kts near or
a little after 12 utc Wed.
a) Breeze could become light and variable for a
time 18 utc Tue.
8) But unlike yesterday the GFS model is transient with this wind hole and
shifts it westward.
a) This allows your winds to become light S-SSE
around/after 00 utc Thu.
9) This puts you on starboard and heading E-ESE which normally is not good
but in this case gets you
to the increasing E-ESE trades earlier.
a) Let’s hope the model guidance is correct.
11) Once in the trades you will be heading S and looks like you can
negotiate the western periphery of
the high in the long term as the high center slides eastward to
30-35s/85-90 E by next Tue.
RoutingÖ You want to get E of the line 6s/75e to 10s/73 30e to 13s/73e to
16s/68e to get into increasing E-ESE trade winds late this week. Heading SE
may get you there quicker than heading S
on the latest 6 utc GFS model guidance
You want to get to 7-8s/ 73-74w by 12-18 utc Thu then can head S into
increasing trades.
Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts, and time is UTC
Tue, Jan 13
18: 050-070/12-16
WeatherÖFair to partly cloudy
Seas 3-5 ft – NE swell
Wed, Jan 14
00: 040-060/ 5-10
06: 050-060/ 6-9
12: 050-070/ 4-7 nr 6 40s/69 e
18: light and variable
WeatherÖVariable cloudiness with scattered squally showers developing
Seas 2-4 ft – NE swell
Thurs, Jan 15 ñ winds backing slowly
00: bcmg 160-180/ 5-8 ñ now on starboard
06: 150-170/ 5-8
12: 140-160/ 5-8 nr 8 s/73-74e Winds stronger to E and S
18: 120-140/ 6-10 – Tack to Port and heading S
WeatherÖVariable cloudiness with scattered squally showers possible
Seas 2-4 ft
Fri, Jan 16 ñ trade winds increasing as you get further S
00: 090-110/ 6-10
06: 100-120/ 10-15
12: 080-100/ 12-17 nr 11s/73e
18: 080-100/ 14-20
WeatherÖVariable cloudiness with scattered squally showers becoming less
frequent.
SeasÖincrease to 3-5 ft
\
Sat, Jan 17
00: 070-090/ 14-20
06: 070-090/ 14-18
12: 080-100/ 13-17 nr 18s/ 74e
18: 080-100/ 12-16
WeatherÖPartly cloudy brief scattered trade wind shower possible
Seas 3-6 ft
Sun, Jan 18
00: 080-100/ 8-12
12: 070-090/ 12-16 nr 24s/ 74-75w
WeatherÖPartly cloudy , brief scattered trade wind shower possible
Seas 3-6 ft
Best regards,
Tom Mattus