From: Commanders’ Weather <info@
To: Musandam <omantri@
Subject: weather Thu 8 utc 1-8
Date: 08/01/2009 07:59:03
To: Charles Darbyshire and crew of “Musandam”
From: Commanders Weather Corp
Event: sail around the world
Place: Muscat, Oman
Departure: 1000utc Thu, Jan 8, 2009
Prepared: 0800utc Thu, Jan 8, 2009
SummaryÖFirst 24 hours still look light then increasing NE trade winds as
you get S of 21n
1) No real changes in the GFS model guidance from a few days ago in the
short term.
2) Will be dealing with thermals and local affects first 24 hours or so.
3) Last observations from the airport showed light and variable conditions
at mid morning
but with sunshine expect the thermal breeze from the N- NE to develop
shortly
4) Would expect the thermal breeze to get to 6-10 kts this afternoon and
could be strongest
5+ offshore.
a) Concerned if there are headlands then the
onshore breeze near shore gets lifted
vertically leaving light and variable in the
afternoon close to the beaches.
6) In general would expect the onshore NE to clock to E then SE as it dies
with wind speeds< 8 kts
overnight.
7) Could be another light and variable period late night before becoming
light N-NE toward and after
sunrise Fri .
8) Continue to get SSE as best you can away from the coast and into
increasing NE trade winds
approaching and south of 21n
9) This breeze does not look quite as strong as it did a few days ago but
still should get to 15-20+ kts
over the weekend.
10) Trade wind breeze will diminish south of 10n early next week but this
process will be gradual.
11) Latest on the possible tropical low is that it may develop near 15s/65e
today or Friday.
a) Latest satellite pictures show considerable squall
activity develop in area from 10-18s
and 65-75e with some curved banding.
12) Expect the low to settle southward to near 20s/65e by Saturday ñ become
stationary for a few days
then continue southward to near 25s/65e by next Mon Jan 12.
13) The change from yesterday in the GFS is that this model now accelerates
this low SE to 35s/75e by
next Wed which gets it out of the picture completely.
a) If correct it will leave a light wind regime
behind it south of the Equator which would
not be good for you.
14) Lets hope the European is right having the low further north.
15) Anyway this is a long way off.
16) In the mean time do the best you can with the light winds starting out
and get S to the increasing
NE trades.
17) Please let us know how often you want updates.
RoutingÖWant to utilize the onshore thermal breeze as best we can Thursday
afternoon.
May have to get 5+ miles for best thermal as winds closer
in could be light and flukey if
there are headlands.
Probably need to get 10 + miles offshore in the evening to
stay away from possible flukey
winds closer to shore after sunset.
Then once E of Ral’s al Hadd by 10-15 miles get S as fast as
possible to 21n where you
should see increasing NE trades.
Sail best boat speed SSE crossing equator nr 65e
Long term goal is to get south of the high pressure zone
and into the westerlies usually
between 40-45s
Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts, and time is UTC
Thurs, Jan 8
0200: 190-230/ 4-8 ñ light offshore land breeze
0600: lt/variable – Wind holes develop just before sea breeze
1000: 020-050/ 6-9 departure – sea breeze ñ could be wind holes < 5
miles from shore.
1400: 050-080/ 9-6 ñ sea breeze diminishes and shifts right.
1800: 090-120/ 4-7 ñ getting S slowly
WeatherÖFair
Seas < 2 ft
Fri, Jan 9
00: 140-090/ 3-6 – off Ra’s al Hadd 10+ miles and aiming SSE
wind could be light and variable but should fill in late am
06: bcmg 360-030/ 4-8
12: 020-040/ 5-10 nr 21 20n/60 40e ñ winds increasing
18: 050-070/ 8-12
WeatherÖFair
Seas increase to 1-3 ft
Sat, Jan 10
00: 040-060/10-14
06: 050-070/11-15
12: 050-070/12-16 nr 17n/62 e
18: 050-070/13-17
WeatherÖFair
Seas 2-4 ft
Sun, Jan 11
00: 050-070/14-18
06: 050-070/15-20
12: 050-070/15-22 nr 12n/63 e
18: 050-070/15-22
WeatherÖFair
Seas 3-6 ft
Mon, Jan 12
00: 050-070/ 15-20 ñ winds diminish
06: 060-080/ 12-17
12: 080-100/ 10-15 nr 7 30n/ 64e
18: 080-100/ 12-17
WeatherÖFair to partly cloudy
Seas 3-5 ft ñ NE swell
Tue, Jan 13
00: 080-100/ 12-17
12: 080-100/ 10-15 nr 3n/ 64e
Weather.. Partly cloudy
Seas 3-5 ft NE swell
Wed, Jan 14
00: 050-070/ 5-10
12: 040-060/ 4-8 nr 1s/64 30e
WeatherÖVariable cloudiness
SeasÖ3-5 ft NE swell
Thu, Jan 15
00: 020-040/ 4-8
12: 010-030/ 5-10 nr 03 30s/65 30e
WeatherÖVariable cloudiness risk scattered shower/squall
SeasÖ3-5 ft NE swell
Best regards,
Tom Mattus