From: Commanders’ Weather
To: Musandam
Subject: weather forecast 2-4
Date: 04/02/2009 13:04:24
To: Charles Darbyshire and the crew of
“Musandam”
From: Commanders Weather Corp
Event: sail around the world
Last Position: near 43 16s/179 44w at 11 30 utc Wed Feb 4, 2009
Prepared: 1300utc Wed Feb 4, 2009
SummaryÖlooks as though you will stay ahead or to the S and E of the high
with very favorable S-SW to SW winds over the next 24-36 hrs, and then
eventually W-SW to W and NW ahead of the next cold front tracking to the E.
1) Cold front is off to the E and NE, while high pressure is now building E
to off South Island
2) You are E of this high with the brisk S-SW breeze, which will trend right
into SW over the next 24 hrs, as the high shifts to the E and E-NE
a) wind speeds getting into the lower 20s
3) The high will be located NW of Chatham Island near 42 30s/180 by 12 utc
Thu, then shifts E-NE to 42s/174w by 00 utc Fri to 41-42S/165-168w by 12 utc
Fri
4) As this high passes by to the north, look for winds to continue to trend
right into W-SW and then mainly W on Fri.
a) wind mainly in the 20s, but
b) there could be a period of 30-35 kts, near any squally showers
5) the high then shifts E along 40-41S into Sat, while the next cold front
advances to the E
6) Will be stronger W to NW winds ahead of this front, mainly later Sat into
Sun.
a) wind speeds into the 30s, and
b) there will be increasing chance for showers/squalls as this front
approaches from W
7) front moves thru sometime around 12 utc Sun with wind shifting into SW to
S behind it.
a) wind diminishes for a time, but
b) watch out for colder more unstable type clouds with showers, and
c) this may keep the S wind into the 20s and lower 30s
8) Cold front may slow down some into early next week, and
9) if you catch the front again, there is chance wind diminishes and shifts
into N or NE
10) but right now, think you remain with a wind shifting into SW, which may
increase from W to NW by Tue, if a big low forms over the southern Ocean.
RoutingÖ
1) a close to 130 course to south of Chatham Island to near 45s/175w looks
fine, and
2) as wind shifts into W-SW to W, you may need to get further south to
46s/169w before gibing back more north.
a) remember, you want to stay north of 48s to avoid any risk of ice
3) With the stronger NW winds ahead of cold front, you can head E or E-NE
along or between 44-45S, but
4) behind the cold front with the S winds, you may need to come up to 43S by
Mon or so.
5) in the longer term (Mon-Wed) of next week, looks best to be near 42-43S
with the potential big storm to the S produce more wind and sea
6) Estimated positions listed below
Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts, and time is UTC
Wed, Feb 4
18: 190-210/ 15-22
WeatherÖmainly cloudy with chance for a squally shower
Seas 7-10 ft, SW swell
Thu, Feb 5 ñ wind lighter behind you to the W and NW, while stronger to the
S and SE
00: 200-220/ 17-24, just S or S-SW of Chatham Is
06: 210-230/ 17-25
12: 220-240/ 17-25 nr 45s/ 173w
18: 220-240/ 18-26
WeatherÖVariable cloudiness, risk for isolated passing squally shower
Seas building to 10-14 ft, wind wave chop with SW swell ñ higher to the S
and SE
Fri, Feb 6 ñ high pressure passing by to the north along 41-42S ñ so wind
lighter to the north, and stronger south
00: 240-260/ 24-32 nr 46s/169w ñ now gibing back more north
06: 240-260/ 20-28
12: 260-280/ 20-30 nr 45s/165 30w
18: 280-310/ 18-25
WeatherÖpartly to variable cloudy
Seas 10-15 ft, wind wave chop with SW swell
Sat, Feb 7 ñ heading E with stronger W-NW to NW wind ahead of cold front
00: 290-310/ 20-28
06: 300-330/ 20-30
12: 310-330/ 25-35 nr 44s/157 30w
18: 310-330/ 25-35
WeatherÖVariable to mostly cloudy with increasing chance for showers/squalls
Seas 10-15 ft, rough chop with SW swell
Sun, Feb 8 ñ cold front moving thru from W to E
00: 310-340/25-35
06: 320-280/22-32, squally ñ near cold front
12: bcmg 190-220/20-30 nr 43 30n/149w ñ behind cold front
18: 170-200/22-35
WeatherÖshowers and squalls, then variable cloudiness and turning colder
with isolated passing showers
Seas 10-15 ft, SW swell
Mon, Feb 9 ñ mainly SW flow behind cold front, but if front slows down or
stalls, then chance you could catch the front and get into a lighter NE to N
wind
00: 180-210/20-30
12: 200-230/20-30 nr 43s/141w
WeatherÖVariable cloudiness, showers possible
Seas near 10 ft, SW swell
Tue, Feb 10 ñ big low pressure possibly developing well south may provide
stronger W to NW winds
00: 270-300/25-40
12: 310-340/25-40 nr 42 30s/132w
WeatherÖincreasing chance for showers and squalls
Seas building to 15-20 ft
Outlook for Wed Feb 11
Lighter W-NW to W winds, mainly 15-25 kts. Seas near 15 ft
Best regards, Chris Wasserback
—
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